Climate change scenarios of surface solar radiation in data sparse regions: a case study in Malaprabha River Basin, India

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dc.contributor.author Anandhi, Aavudai
dc.contributor.author Srinivas, V. V.
dc.contributor.author Kumar, D. Nagesh
dc.contributor.author Nanjundiah, Ravi S.
dc.contributor.author Gowda, Prasanna H.
dc.date.accessioned 2014-06-26T20:40:29Z
dc.date.available 2014-06-26T20:40:29Z
dc.date.issued 2014-06-26
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/2097/17890
dc.description.abstract A variety of methods are available to estimate future solar radiation (SR) scenarios at spatial scales that are appropriate for local climate change impact assessment. However, there are no clear guidelines available in the literature to decide which methodologies are most suitable for different applications. Three methodologies to guide the estimation of SR are discussed in this study, namely: Case 1: SR is measured, Case 2: SR is measured but sparse and Case 3: SR is not measured. In Case 1, future SR scenarios are derived using several downscaling methodologies that transfer the simulated large-scale information of global climate models to a local scale (measurements). In Case 2, the SR was first estimated at the local scale for a longer time period using sparse measured records, and then future scenarios were derived using several downscaling methodologies. In Case 3: the SR was first estimated at a regional scale for a longer time period using complete or sparse measured records of SR from which SR at the local scale was estimated. Finally, the future scenarios were derived using several downscaling methodologies. The lack of observed SR data, especially in developing countries, has hindered various climate change impact studies. Hence, this was further elaborated by applying the Case 3 methodology to a semi-arid Malaprabha reservoir catchment in southern India. A support vector machine was used in downscaling SR. Future monthly scenarios of SR were estimated from simulations of third-generation Canadian General Circulation Model (CGCM3) for various SRES emission scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, and COMMIT). Results indicated a projected decrease of 0.4 to 12.2 W mˉ² yrˉ¹ in SR during the period 2001-2100 across the 4 scenarios. SR was calculated using the modified Hargreaves method. The decreasing trends for the future were in agreement with the simulations of SR from the CGCM3 model directly obtained for the 4 scenarios. en_US
dc.language.iso en_US en_US
dc.relation.uri http://www.int-res.com/abstracts/cr/v59/n3/p259-270/ en_US
dc.subject Downscaling en_US
dc.subject Modified Hargreaves and Donatelli-Bellocchi methods en_US
dc.subject Support vector machine en_US
dc.subject SVM en_US
dc.subject IPCC SRES scenarios en_US
dc.subject Cloud cover downscaling en_US
dc.title Climate change scenarios of surface solar radiation in data sparse regions: a case study in Malaprabha River Basin, India en_US
dc.type Article (publisher version) en_US
dc.date.published 2014 en_US
dc.citation.doi doi:10.3354/cr01180 en_US
dc.citation.epage 270 en_US
dc.citation.issue 3 en_US
dc.citation.jtitle Climate Research en_US
dc.citation.spage 259 en_US
dc.citation.volume 59 en_US
dc.contributor.authoreid anandhi en_US


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