Economic risk analysis model for bovine viral diarrhea virus biosecurity in cow-calf herds

Abstract

A stochastic model was designed to calculate the cost-effectiveness of biosecurity strate-gies for bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) in cow-calf herds. Possible sources of BVDVintroduction considered were imported animals, including the calves of pregnant imports,and fenceline contact with infected herds, including stocker cattle raised in adjacent pas-tures. Spread of BVDV through the herd was modeled with a stochastic SIR model. Financial consequences of BVDV, including lost income, treatment costs, and the cost of biosecuritystrategies, were calculated for 10 years, based on the risks of a herd with a user-definedimport profile. Results indicate that importing pregnant animals and stockers increased thefinancial risk of BVDV. Strategic testing in combination with vaccination most decreased therisk of high-cost outbreaks in most herds. The choice of a biosecurity strategy was specificto the risks of a particular herd.