Optimization Models for Flash Flooding in Developing Countries

Abstract

This paper details two optimization models which are designed to increase the number of lives saved from flash flooding in developing countries. The evacuation planning model is prescriptive and built to minimize road link failure probability as civilians evacuate the area. The operational planning model is formulated and applied during a flash flood and focuses on minimizing the number of trips taken by public transportation services to evacuate civilians. Both models are discussed in detail and evaluated according to applicability, ability to predict crowd behavior, road link maneuverability with rising water depths, ability to identify risk-averse relief points, and assumption requirements. After evaluating both models, this paper recommends the evacuation planning model as best suited for countries with poor infrastructure or rural environments with limited technological resources. The operational planning model is found to be best suited for countries with large cities and public transportation networks. The paper recommends that the UNDRR hire an industrial engineer familiar with operations research and CPLEX optimization software. This engineer would coordinate with local officials to develop flash flood evacuation plans by tailoring one of these models to fit the specific needs of that country.