This publication uses national, quarterly data to examine U.S. meat
demand using the Rotterdam model. The analysis provides insights into
beef demand and previously unexamined topics including the effect of
multiple information indices linking different health concerns with diet,
changes in household dynamics, and meat recall information.
Estimation results confirmed that consumer expenditures are a very
important beef demand determinant, which means that beef demand
is sensitive to the strength of the U.S. economy. Results also indicate
consumers respond to the receipt of information about beef and nutrition.
For example, publication of medical journal articles linking iron,
zinc, and protein with health and diet increase beef demand whereas
publication of articles dealing with fat, cholesterol, and diet concerns
reduce beef demand.
Overall, model results also suggest that beef demand suffered,
and poultry demand benefitted, as U.S. consumers’ demand for more
convenient meat products increased. In particular, as U.S. consumers
consumption of food away from home increased, beef demand declined.
Consumers are also sensitive to food safety. When USDA Food Safety
Inspection Service beef product recalls increase, beef demand declines.
Moreover, beef product recalls have a significant positive spillover effect
on poultry demand, suggesting that consumers shift away from beef and
toward poultry products in response to beef food safety recalls.
In summary, this research provides a more complete understanding
of the influence multiple information factors have on consumer
demand for beef. Future research could explore the use of additional
media indices focusing on animal welfare, environmental concerns, and
other aspects of human health to estimate their impact on beef demand.
Additionally, future research should also consider the use of scanner data
to obtain better measures of prices paid by consumers for meat products
and to more narrowly identify some of the specific determinants of the
findings from this study.
