Basic Reproduction Number and Transmission Dynamics of Common Serogroups of Enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli

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dc.contributor.author Chen, Shi
dc.contributor.author Sanderson, Michael W.
dc.contributor.author Lee, Chihoon
dc.contributor.author Cernicchiaro, Natalia
dc.contributor.author Renter, David G.
dc.contributor.author Lanzas, Cristina
dc.date.accessioned 2018-07-25T21:44:05Z
dc.date.available 2018-07-25T21:44:05Z
dc.date.issued 2016-09-15
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/2097/39059
dc.description.abstract Understanding the transmission dynamics of pathogens is essential to determine the epidemiology, ecology, and ways of controlling enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli (EHEC) in animals and their environments. Our objective was to estimate the epidemiological fitness of common EHEC strains in cattle populations. For that purpose, we developed a Markov chain model to characterize the dynamics of 7 serogroups of enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli (O26, O45, O103, O111, O121, O145, and O157) in cattle production environments based on a set of cross-sectional data on infection prevalence in 2 years in two U.S. states. The basic reproduction number (R 0) was estimated using a Bayesian framework for each serogroup based on two criteria (using serogroup alone [the O-group data] and using O serogroup, Shiga toxin gene[s], and intimin [eae] gene together [the EHEC data]). In addition, correlations between external covariates (e.g., location, ambient temperature, dietary, and probiotic usage) and prevalence/R 0 were quantified. R 0 estimates varied substantially among different EHEC serogroups, with EHEC O157 having an R 0 of >1 (∼1.5) and all six other EHEC serogroups having an R 0 of less than 1. Using the O-group data substantially increased R 0 estimates for the O26, O45, and O103 serogroups (R 0 > 1) but not for the others. Different covariates had distinct influences on different serogroups: the coefficients for each covariate were different among serogroups. Our modeling and analysis of this system can be readily expanded to other pathogen systems in order to estimate the pathogen and external factors that influence spread of infectious agents. IMPORTANCE In this paper we describe a Bayesian modeling framework to estimate basic reproduction numbers of multiple serotypes of Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli according to a cross-sectional study. We then coupled a compartmental model to reconstruct the infection dynamics of these serotypes and quantify their risk in the population. We incorporated different sensitivity levels of detecting different serotypes and evaluated their potential influence on the estimation of basic reproduction numbers.
dc.relation.uri https://doi.org/10.1128/AEM.00815-16
dc.rights © 2016, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved. This Item is protected by copyright and/or related rights. You are free to use this Item in any way that is permitted by the copyright and related rights legislation that applies to your use. For other uses you need to obtain permission from the rights-holder(s
dc.rights.uri http://journals.asm.org/site/misc/ASM_Author_Statement.xhtml
dc.title Basic Reproduction Number and Transmission Dynamics of Common Serogroups of Enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli
dc.type Text
dc.date.published 2016
dc.citation.doi 10.1128/AEM.00815-16
dc.citation.epage 5620
dc.citation.issn 0099-2240
dc.citation.issue 18
dc.citation.jtitle Applied and Environmental Microbiology
dc.citation.spage 5612
dc.citation.volume 82
dc.description.version Article: Version of Record


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