Lahman, John William2012-04-302012-04-302012-04-30http://hdl.handle.net/2097/13760A negative-sloped Treasury curve is often cited in financial news articles and by Federal Reserve economists as a predictor of recessions. This report reviews previously published research examining the reliability of yield curves predicting recessions. Findings show that the yield curve inverts two or more quarters before recessions, with short-term interest rates rising above long-term interest rates. Probit regression has proven a reliable method for generating estimated probabilities of future recessions that, in turn, are useful for both monetary policy and asset allocation decision-making.en-US© the author. This Item is protected by copyright and/or related rights. You are free to use this Item in any way that is permitted by the copyright and related rights legislation that applies to your use. For other uses you need to obtain permission from the rights-holder(s).http://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/Yield Curve RecessionsReportEconomics (0501)