External Support in Civil War Onset: Sri Lankan Context

Abstract

Did external support to Tamil rebels mark the onset of the three-decade civil war in Sri Lanka? Previous studies present burgeoning population, ethnic demographic imbalances, and discrimination against the Tamil community, and the demand for greater autonomy by Tamil politicians in the North-East region (Sons of the Soil) as the determinant factors of the Sri Lankan Civil War. This study, on the contrary, utilizing a dataset comprising 49 instances of civil war events in Sri Lanka from 1960 to 2009, argues that external support was the likely determinant for the outbreak of war. The material, political, moral, training, and geographic support by the Government of India starting in the late 1970s changed the balance of power and bolstered the rebels to escalate the conflict to a war. Despite statistical insignificance, external support and civil war onset are positively correlated, suggesting future potential to refine the study.