Value congruence, goal congruence, and conflict as predictors of early marital disruption

Abstract

Divorce has been associated with many challenges and negative outcomes for divorcees, offspring, and community life. Despite an apparent drop in overall divorce rates in America, the rates remain high; thus, the need for prevention-related research remains paramount. Risk factors and predictors of divorce have been well-documented, but little has been done to analyze the degree to which couples’ value congruence, goal congruence, and conflict levels affect the risk of marital dissolution. Through the lens of Interdependence theory, this study utilized a 5-year longitudinal sample of 709 couples to (a) classify couple types according to their value congruence, goal congruence, and conflict via a latent profile analysis, and (b) assess each of these couple type’s risk of divorce using a logistic regression analysis. The latent profile analysis revealed three classes (Class 1, moderate congruence-non-institutional, 17% of couples; Class 2, moderate congruence-moderate conflict, 20% of couples; Class 3, high congruence-low conflict, 63% of couples). A logistic regression found significantly higher probabilities of marital disruption for moderate congruence-non-institutional couples (5.8 times higher) and moderate congruence-moderate conflict couples (4.3 times higher), relative to high congruence-low conflict couples. Based on these results, clinical implications for pre- and early-marital couple therapists for each of the three couple profiles are explored.