The impact of women’s participation, leadership, and units on rebel organizations’ goal attainment and conflict outcomes

Abstract

Conflicts end not only through easily identifiable outcomes, but also through the goals that rebel organizations pursue and achieve. Intermediate goals are a necessary step toward outcomes, but are rarely discussed, except in terms of interim governments and power-sharing agreements. End goals help to guide a rebel organization’s mission and vision for the future. These two types of goals then help the rebel organization meet a successful outcome, specifically a peace agreement or a rebel victory. Women may play critical roles in helping rebel groups achieve their goals. Women’s inclusion in roles as participants, leaders, and in all-women units and in frontline and non-combat positions provides the rebel organization with a wealth of potential for success. Using Firth’s logistic regression, I analyzed the impact of these women’s roles and positions on goal attainment and outcomes. I found that women leaders and units with no specific role were essential to meeting intermediate goals, but I found very little support for women being impactful in any role or position for complete goal attainment, except potentially for non-combat women’s units. When analyzing specific outcomes, frontline and non-combat participants, frontline leaders, and women’s units, specifically frontline units, were significantly impactful for a rebel organization to successfully negotiate a peace agreement. Women participants and frontline leaders were associated with rebel victory as well.