Transformation of Air Warfare: Drones in the Russo-Ukrainian War

Abstract

The primary objective of air power is to coerce the enemy to alter his behavior by manipulating the cost of war. Social scientist Thomas Schelling explained coercion as the ability of military power to “hurt” the enemy – to inflict punishment – and the inherent bargaining power this confers. Traditionally, conventional manned aircraft have been the primary means of coercion, but the increasing reliance on drones by Russia and Ukraine in the ongoing war challenges this paradigm. For instance, according to The Armed Conflict Locations and Event Data Project (ACLED), out of 929 missions conducted by the Ukrainian Air Force in 2023, 887 (95%) were drone missions. This shift prompts an examination into how examining how drones transform air warfare in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict. This paper contends that drones are reshaping air warfare by assuming traditional manned aircraft roles, reducing the cost of warfare, and mitigating the risk of escalation, particularly in contested airspace where conventional aircraft face limitations in operational effectiveness.