The Proliferation of Coercive Asymmetric Air Power Amongst Violent Non-State Actors and the Threat to International Security

Abstract

This study tests the impact of the proliferation of asymmetric air power among non-state actors on the international security landscape. Contrary to empirical evidence of the geopolitical consequences visible in Russia-Ukraine and in the Middle Eastern conflicts, scientific scholarship is divided on the strategic implications of non-state actors’ air attacks. There are two schools of thought in the limited studies available so far. Some hold that the impact of air attacks by non-state actors is tactical in nature. Others conclude that those attacks present a strategic effect. This paper argues that non-state actors’ asymmetric air power would present a strategic impact and threaten the international security architecture. Against this backdrop, this study draws the hypothesis from the strategic paralysis theory in airpower and Fourth Generation Warfare theory in insurgencies. Then the thesis is tested with Generalized Moments of Ordinary Least Square Linear Regression process of 181 counts of air attacks by non-state actors from 2006 to 2023. The study finds that air attacks are positive and statistically significant to strategic impact. Furthermore, sponsorship of terrorism and external interventions by states in civil wars are also strong predictors of aerial attacks by non-state actors. The results suggest that asymmetric air power of non-state actors is likely to have international security ramifications.