Ecology and geography of human monkeypox case occurrences across Africa

Abstract

As ecological niche modeling (ENM) evolves as a tool in epidemiology and public health, refinement of occurrence data , and selection of the most appropriate and informative environmental data sets becomes increasingly important. In this report, a previous ENM analysis predicting the potential distribution of human monkeypox in Africa is reassessed using refined georeferencing criteria, and use of a more diverse set of environmental data, in order to identify environmental parameters contributing to monkeypox ecology. Significant environmental variables included annual precipitation, several temperature-related variables, net primary productivity, potential evaoptranspiration, solid moisture, soil pH, and two monthly NDVI variables. Our results emphasize the importance of selecting the most appropriate and informative environmental data for ENM analysis.