Bayesian Space-Time Patterns and Climatic Determinants of Bovine Anaplasmosis

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Show simple item record Hanzlicek, Gregg A. Raghavan, Ram K. Ganta, Roman R. Anderson, Gary Allen 2016-09-20T17:34:08Z 2016-09-20T17:34:08Z 2016-03-22
dc.description Citation: Hanzlicek, G. A., Raghavan, R. K., Ganta, R. R., & Anderson, G. A. (2016). Bayesian Space-Time Patterns and Climatic Determinants of Bovine Anaplasmosis. Plos One, 11(3), 13. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0151924
dc.description.abstract The space-time pattern and environmental drivers (land cover, climate) of bovine anaplasmosis in the Midwestern state of Kansas was retrospectively evaluated using Bayesian hierarchical spatio-temporal models and publicly available, remotely-sensed environmental covariate information. Cases of bovine anaplasmosis positively diagnosed at Kansas State Veterinary Diagnostic Laboratory (n = 478) between years 2005-2013 were used to construct the models, which included random effects for space, time and space-time interaction effects with defined priors, and fixed-effect covariates selected a priori using an univariate screening procedure. The Bayesian posterior median and 95% credible intervals for the space-time interaction term in the best-fitting covariate model indicated a steady progression of bovine anaplasmosis over time and geographic area in the state. Posterior median estimates and 95% credible intervals derived for covariates in the final covariate model indicated land surface temperature (minimum), relative humidity and diurnal temperature range to be important risk factors for bovine anaplasmosis in the study. The model performance measured using the Area Under the Curve (AUC) value indicated a good performance for the covariate model (>0.7). The relevance of climatological factors for bovine anaplasmosis is discussed.
dc.rights Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)
dc.subject Continental United-States
dc.subject Lone Star Tick
dc.subject Borne Diseases
dc.subject Temperature
dc.subject Model
dc.subject Risk
dc.title Bayesian Space-Time Patterns and Climatic Determinants of Bovine Anaplasmosis
dc.type Article 2016
dc.citation.doi 10.1371/journal.pone.0151924
dc.citation.issn 1932-6203
dc.citation.issue 3
dc.citation.jtitle Plos One
dc.citation.spage 13
dc.citation.volume 11
dc.contributor.authoreid gahanz
dc.contributor.authoreid rkraghavan
dc.contributor.authoreid rganta
dc.contributor.authoreid ganders

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