Heterogeneous effects of warming and drought on selected wheat variety yields

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dc.contributor.author Tack, Jesse
dc.contributor.author Barkley, Andrew P.
dc.contributor.author Nalley, Lawton Lanier
dc.date.accessioned 2014-11-14T17:10:51Z
dc.date.available 2014-11-14T17:10:51Z
dc.date.issued 2014-11-14
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/2097/18673
dc.description.abstract Climate change is likely to significantly impact agricultural production in the Great Plains region of the Central United States. This study estimated the impact of changes in temperature and precipitation on wheat (triticum aestivum) variety yield distributions using the moment-based maximum entropy (MBME) model. This approach allows for quantification of potential weather impacts on the yield distribution, and allows these effects to vary across varieties. The unique data set matches wheat variety trial data for 1985 to 2011 with weather data from the exact trial site for 11 locations throughout Kansas. Ten widely-planted varieties with a range of biotic and abiotic characteristics were included for comparison. Weather scenarios were simulated for baseline, increased temperature (one-degree Celsius warming), decreased precipitation (tenth-percentile rainfall outcome), and a combination warming and drought scenario. Warming resulted in an 11 % yield reduction, drought a 22 % reduction, and warming and drought a cumulative 33 % reduction. These effects vary across varieties. Alternative measures of yield risk (e.g. yield variance and coefficient of variation) were also constructed under each scenario and a similar pattern of heterogeneous impacts emerges. The key findings are that (i) exposure to warming and drought lead to mean yield reductions coupled with increased yield risk for all varieties, and (ii) newer (post 2005) seed varieties have a yield advantage over older varieties, however this advantage is reduced under warming and drought conditions. en_US
dc.language.iso en_US en_US
dc.relation.uri http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-014-1185-1 en_US
dc.rights The final publication is available at link.springer.com en_US
dc.subject Climate change en_US
dc.subject Great Plains en_US
dc.subject Wheat en_US
dc.subject Triticum aestivum en_US
dc.subject Moment-based maximum entropy model en_US
dc.subject Drought en_US
dc.title Heterogeneous effects of warming and drought on selected wheat variety yields en_US
dc.type Article (author version) en_US
dc.date.published 2014 en_US
dc.citation.doi doi:10.1007/s10584-014-1185-1 en_US
dc.citation.epage 500 en_US
dc.citation.issue 3-4 en_US
dc.citation.jtitle Climatic Change en_US
dc.citation.spage 489 en_US
dc.citation.volume 125 en_US
dc.contributor.authoreid barkley en_US

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