Assessing impacts of climate change on Kansas water resources: rainfall trends and risk analysis of water control structures

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dc.contributor.author Rahmani, Vahid en_US
dc.date.accessioned 2014-09-26T16:10:29Z
dc.date.available 2014-09-26T16:10:29Z
dc.date.issued 2014-09-26
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/2097/18342
dc.description.abstract Precipitation impacts hydrologic structures, agricultural production, water resources management, and recreational activities, all of which significantly affect a state’s economy. Water control structure design is based on the maximum runoff rate resulting from storms with a specific return period and duration. The Rainfall Frequency Atlas (National Weather Service Technical Paper 40, 1961) (TP-40) provided statistical rainfall analysis as the basis for hydrologic structure design until the information was updated for Kansas in February 2013 (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Atlas 14, volume 8) (Atlas-14). With growing concern about the effects of global climate change and predictions of more precipitation and extreme weather events, it is necessary to explore rainfall distribution patterns using the most current and complete data available. In this work, the changes in rainfall patterns were studied using the daily rainfall data from 23 stations in Kansas and 15 stations from adjacent states with daily rainfall data of 1890 through 2012. Analysis showed an increase in extreme precipitation events in Kansas with increase in magnitude from the northwest to southeast part of the state. A comparison of results of the TP-40 analysis to period 1980–2009, showed that approximately 84% of the state had an increase in short-term rainfall event magnitudes. In addition, trend analyzes on the total annual rainfall indicated a gradual increase at 21 out of 23 stations, including eight statistically significant trends. A change-point analysis detected a significant sudden change at twelve stations as early as 1940 and as recently as 1980. The increasing trend, particularly after the significant change-points, is useful in updating water management plans and can assist with agricultural production decisions such as crop selection and new plant variety development. A comparison between 10-yr, 24-hr storms from TP-40 and Atlas-14 indicated a change of -12% to 5% in Kansas. However, the number of exceedances from the 10-yr, 1-, 2-, 3-, 4-, 7-, and 10-day storms demonstrated a tendency towards more exceedances, particularly in the last five decades. Results of this study are useful for hydrologic structure design and water resources management in order to prevent accepting additional risk of failure because of the current changing climate. en_US
dc.description.sponsorship National Science Foundation en_US
dc.language.iso en_US en_US
dc.publisher Kansas State University en
dc.subject Climate change and variability en_US
dc.subject Extreme rainfall events en_US
dc.subject Kansas en_US
dc.subject Hydrologic structures en_US
dc.subject Water resources en_US
dc.subject Rainfall trend analysis en_US
dc.title Assessing impacts of climate change on Kansas water resources: rainfall trends and risk analysis of water control structures en_US
dc.type Dissertation en_US
dc.description.degree Doctor of Philosophy en_US
dc.description.level Doctoral en_US
dc.description.department Department of Biological & Agricultural Engineering en_US
dc.description.advisor Stacy L. Hutchinson en_US
dc.subject.umi Civil Engineering (0543) en_US
dc.subject.umi Engineering, Agricultural (0539) en_US
dc.subject.umi Water Resource Management (0595) en_US
dc.date.published 2014 en_US
dc.date.graduationmonth December en_US


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