The effects of climate variability and the color of weather time series on agricultural diseases and pests, and on decisions for their management

K-REx Repository

Show simple item record

dc.contributor.author Dobson, A. D. M.
dc.contributor.author Kroschel, J.
dc.contributor.author Natarajan, Bala
dc.contributor.author Orlandini, S.
dc.contributor.author Tonnang, H. E. Z.
dc.contributor.author Valdivia, C.
dc.contributor.author Garrett, Karen A.
dc.date.accessioned 2012-05-23T18:46:09Z
dc.date.available 2012-05-23T18:46:09Z
dc.date.issued 2013-03-15
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/2097/13854
dc.description Citation: Garrett, K.., Dobson, A., Kroschel, J., . . . Valdivia, C. (2013). The effects of climate variability and the color of weather time series on agricultural diseases and pests, and on decisions for their management. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 170, 216-227. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.04.018
dc.description.abstract If climate change scenarios include higher variance in weather variables, this can have important effects on pest and disease risk beyond changes in mean weather conditions. We developed a theoretical model of yield loss to diseases and pests as a function of weather, and used this model to evaluate the effects of variance in conduciveness to loss and the effects of the color of time series of weather conduciveness to loss. There were two qualitatively different results for changes in system variance. If median conditions are conducive to loss, increasing system variance decreases mean yield loss. On the other hand, if median conditions are intermediate or poor for disease or pest development, such that conditions are conducive to yield loss no more than half the time, increasing system variance increases mean yield loss. Time series for weather conduciveness that are darker pink (have higher levels of temporal autocorrelation) produce intermediate levels of yield loss less commonly. A linked model of decision-making based on either past or current information about yield loss also shows changes in the performance of decision rules as a function of system variance. Understanding patterns of variance can improve scenario analysis for climate change and help make adaptation strategies such as decision support systems and insurance programs more effective. en_US
dc.relation.uri https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.04.018 en_US
dc.rights This Item is protected by copyright and/or related rights. You are free to use this Item in any way that is permitted by the copyright and related rights legislation that applies to your use. For other uses you need to obtain permission from the rights-holder(s).
dc.rights.uri https://www.elsevier.com/about/policies/sharing
dc.rights.uri https://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/
dc.subject Climate change en_US
dc.subject Climate variability en_US
dc.subject Colored noise en_US
dc.subject Cropping systems en_US
dc.subject Decision-making under uncertainty en_US
dc.subject Decision support systems en_US
dc.subject Early warning systems en_US
dc.subject Environmental variability en_US
dc.subject Insurance en_US
dc.subject Livestock en_US
dc.subject Pests en_US
dc.subject Time series en_US
dc.title The effects of climate variability and the color of weather time series on agricultural diseases and pests, and on decisions for their management en_US
dc.type Text en_US
dc.date.published 2013 en_US
dc.citation.doi 10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.04.018
dc.citation.epage 227
dc.citation.issn 1461-9555
dc.citation.jtitle Agricultural and Forest Meteorology en_US
dc.citation.spage 216
dc.citation.volume 170
dc.citation Garrett, K.., Dobson, A., Kroschel, J., . . . Valdivia, C. (2013). The effects of climate variability and the color of weather time series on agricultural diseases and pests, and on decisions for their management. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 170, 216-227. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.04.018
dc.contributor.authoreid kgarrett en_US
dc.contributor.authoreid bala en_US
dc.description.version Article: Author's Original Manuscript


Files in this item

This item appears in the following Collection(s)

Show simple item record

Search K-REx


Advanced Search

Browse

My Account

Statistics








Center for the

Advancement of Digital

Scholarship

cads@k-state.edu