Futures Prices in Supply Analysis: Are Instrumental Variables Necessary?

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dc.contributor.author Hendricks, Nathan P.
dc.contributor.author Janzen, Joseph P.
dc.contributor.author Smith, Aaron
dc.date.accessioned 2018-10-12T20:12:40Z
dc.date.available 2018-10-12T20:12:40Z
dc.date.issued 2014-07
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/2097/39212
dc.description Citation: Nathan P. Hendricks, Joseph P. Janzen, Aaron Smith; Futures Prices in Supply Analysis: Are Instrumental Variables Necessary?, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Volume 97, Issue 1, 1 January 2015, Pages 22–39, https://doi.org/10.1093/ajae/aau062
dc.description.abstract Crop yield shocks are partially predictable—high planting-time futures prices have tended to indicate that yield would be below trend. As a result, regressions of total caloric production on futures prices produce estimates of the supply elasticity that are biased downwards by up to 75%. Regressions of the world’s growing area on futures prices have a much smaller bias of about 20% because although yield shocks are partially predictable, this predictability has a relatively small effect on land allocation. We argue that the preferred method for estimating the crop supply elasticity is to use regressions of growing area on futures prices and to include the realized yield shock as a control variable. An alternative method for bias reduction is to use instrumental variables (IVs). We show that the marginal contribution of an IV to bias reduction is small—IVs are not necessary for futures prices in supply analysis.
dc.relation.uri https://doi.org/10.1093/ajae/aau062
dc.rights This is a pre-copyedited, author-produced version of an article accepted for publication in American Journal of Agricultural Economics following peer review. The version of record Nathan P. Hendricks, Joseph P. Janzen, Aaron Smith; Futures Prices in Supply Analysis: Are Instrumental Variables Necessary?, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Volume 97, Issue 1, 1 January 2015, Pages 22–39, is available online at: https://doi.org/10.1093/ajae/aau062
dc.rights.uri http://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/
dc.rights.uri https://academic.oup.com/journals/pages/access_purchase/rights_and_permissions/self_archiving_policy_f
dc.subject JEL: Q11 - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
dc.title Futures Prices in Supply Analysis: Are Instrumental Variables Necessary?
dc.type Text
dc.date.published 2014
dc.citation.doi 10.1093/ajae/aau062
dc.citation.issn 1467-8276
dc.citation.issue 1
dc.citation.jtitle American Journal of Agricultural Economics
dc.citation.volume 97
dc.citation Nathan P. Hendricks, Joseph P. Janzen, Aaron Smith; Futures Prices in Supply Analysis: Are Instrumental Variables Necessary?, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Volume 97, Issue 1, 1 January 2015, Pages 22–39, https://doi.org/10.1093/ajae/aau062
dc.description.embargo 2016-07
dc.description.version Article: Accepted Manuscript (AM)


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This is a pre-copyedited, author-produced version of an article accepted for publication in American Journal of Agricultural Economics following peer review. The version of record Nathan P. Hendricks, Joseph P. Janzen, Aaron Smith; Futures Prices in Supply Analysis: Are Instrumental Variables Necessary?, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Volume 97, Issue 1, 1 January 2015, Pages 22–39,  is available online at: https://doi.org/10.1093/ajae/aau062 Except where otherwise noted, the use of this item is bound by the following: This is a pre-copyedited, author-produced version of an article accepted for publication in American Journal of Agricultural Economics following peer review. The version of record Nathan P. Hendricks, Joseph P. Janzen, Aaron Smith; Futures Prices in Supply Analysis: Are Instrumental Variables Necessary?, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Volume 97, Issue 1, 1 January 2015, Pages 22–39, is available online at: https://doi.org/10.1093/ajae/aau062

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