A network-based meta-population approach to model Rift Valley fever epidemics

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dc.contributor.author Xue, Ling
dc.contributor.author Scott, Harvey Morgan
dc.contributor.author Cohnstaedt, Lee W.
dc.contributor.author Scoglio, Caterina M.
dc.date.accessioned 2012-08-01T15:17:21Z
dc.date.available 2012-08-01T15:17:21Z
dc.date.issued 2012-08-01
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/2097/14114
dc.description.abstract Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) has been expanding its geographical distribution with important implications for both human and animal health. The emergence of Rift Valley fever (RVF) in the Middle East, and its continuing presence in many areas of Africa, has negatively impacted both medical and veterinary infrastructures and human morbidity, mortality, and economic endpoints. Furthermore, worldwide attention should be directed towards the broader infection dynamics of RVFV, because suitable host, vector and environmental conditions for additional epidemics likely exist on other continents; including Asia, Europe and the Americas. We propose a new compartmentalized model of RVF and the related ordinary di erential equations to assess disease spread in both time and space; with the latter driven as a function of contact networks. Humans and livestock hosts and two species of vector mosquitoes are included in the model. The model is based on weighted contact networks, where nodes of the networks represent geographical regions and the weights represent the level of contact between regional pairings for each set of species. The inclusion of human, animal, and vector movements among regions is new to RVF modeling. The movement of the infected individuals is not only treated as a possibility, but also an actuality that can be incorporated into the model. We have tested, calibrated, and evaluated the model using data from the recent 2010 RVF outbreak in South Africa as a case study; mapping the epidemic spread within and among three South African provinces. An extensive set of simulation results shows the potential of the proposed approach for accurately modeling the RVF spreading process in additional regions of the world. The benefits of the proposed model are twofold: not only can the model di erentiate the maximum number of infected individuals among di erent provinces, but also it can reproduce the di erent starting times of the outbreak in multiple locations. Finally, the exact value of the reproduction number is numerically computed and upper and lower bounds for the reproduction number are analytically derived in the case of homogeneous populations. en_US
dc.relation.uri http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S002251931200210X en_US
dc.subject Networks en_US
dc.subject Meta-population en_US
dc.subject Deterministic model en_US
dc.subject Rift Valley fever (RVF) en_US
dc.subject Mitigation en_US
dc.subject Aedes mosquitoes en_US
dc.subject Culex mosquitoes en_US
dc.title A network-based meta-population approach to model Rift Valley fever epidemics en_US
dc.type Article (author version) en_US
dc.date.published 2012 en_US
dc.citation.doi doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2012.04.029 en_US
dc.citation.epage 144 en_US
dc.citation.jtitle Journal of Theoretical Biology en_US
dc.citation.spage 129 en_US
dc.citation.volume 306 en_US
dc.contributor.authoreid caterina en_US
dc.contributor.authoreid lxue en_US
dc.contributor.authoreid hmscott en_US
dc.contributor.authoreid cohnstaedt en_US

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