The yield curve’s predictive power on U.S. recessions: a survey of literature

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dc.contributor.author Lahman, John William
dc.date.accessioned 2012-04-30T16:27:17Z
dc.date.available 2012-04-30T16:27:17Z
dc.date.issued 2012-04-30
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/2097/13760
dc.description.abstract A negative-sloped Treasury curve is often cited in financial news articles and by Federal Reserve economists as a predictor of recessions. This report reviews previously published research examining the reliability of yield curves predicting recessions. Findings show that the yield curve inverts two or more quarters before recessions, with short-term interest rates rising above long-term interest rates. Probit regression has proven a reliable method for generating estimated probabilities of future recessions that, in turn, are useful for both monetary policy and asset allocation decision-making. en_US
dc.language.iso en_US en_US
dc.publisher Kansas State University en
dc.subject Yield Curve Recessions en_US
dc.title The yield curve’s predictive power on U.S. recessions: a survey of literature en_US
dc.type Report en_US
dc.description.degree Master of Arts en_US
dc.description.level Masters en_US
dc.description.department Department of Economics en_US
dc.description.advisor Lloyd B. Thomas en_US
dc.subject.umi Economics (0501) en_US
dc.date.published 2012 en_US
dc.date.graduationmonth May en_US

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