Bayesian network model with Monte Carlo simulations for analysis of animal-related outages in overhead distribution systems.

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dc.contributor.author Gui, Min
dc.contributor.author Pahwa, Anil
dc.contributor.author Das, Sanjoy
dc.date.accessioned 2011-10-20T13:32:36Z
dc.date.available 2011-10-20T13:32:36Z
dc.date.issued 2011-10-20
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/2097/12431
dc.description.abstract This paper extends previous research on using a Bayesian network model to investigate impacts of time (month) and weather (number of fair weather days in a week) on animal-related outages in distribution systems. Outage history (outages in the previous week) is included as an additional input to the model, and inputs and outputs are classified systematically to reduce errors in estimates of outputs. Conditional probability table obtained from the historical data are used to estimate weekly animal-related outages which is followed by a Monte Carlo simulation to find estimates of mean and confidence limits for monthly animal-related outages. Comparison of results obtained for four cities of different sizes in Kansas with those obtained using a hybrid wavelet/neural network model shows consistency between the two models. The methodology presented in this paper is simple to implement and useful for the utilities for year-end analysis of the outage data to identify specific reliability related concerns. en_US
dc.relation.uri http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/xpls/abs_all.jsp?arnumber=5708195 en_US
dc.subject Animal-related failures en_US
dc.subject Bayesian network en_US
dc.subject Monte Carlo simulation en_US
dc.subject Power distribution systems en_US
dc.subject Power system reliability en_US
dc.title Bayesian network model with Monte Carlo simulations for analysis of animal-related outages in overhead distribution systems. en_US
dc.type Article (author version) en_US
dc.date.published 2011 en_US
dc.citation.doi doi: 10.1109/TPWRS.2010.2101619 en_US
dc.citation.epage 1624 en_US
dc.citation.issue 3 en_US
dc.citation.jtitle IEEE Transactions on Power Systems en_US
dc.citation.spage 1618 en_US
dc.citation.volume 26 en_US
dc.contributor.authoreid pahwa en_US

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